Talking iPhone: Where will the SDK take us?

Apple has an event tomorrow focused on the "iPhone software roadmap", which we tend to believe means that we'll finally get some information about the long awaited iPhone (read review) Software Development Kit (SDK), which will finally allow third parties to develop software for the iPhone and iPod Touch. Unfortunately it looks like there might be a lot of disappointments in the offing both in terms of the expected timeline and the final product. Today we're going to look at what the possibilities are and how they might impact iPhone users.

We should note that at this point we're working on educated guesses, information of dubious quality and outright speculation, so take this with a grain of salt. This is more about taking a look at a range of possible realities for the iPhone SDK and applications on the iPhone in general rather than predicting exactly what's going to happen tomorrow.

Let's start with the SDK itself and when it might be available. Apple has indicated starting late last year when they confirmed they would be releasing an SDK that it would be in developer's hands by the end of February. Most indications now are that we won't see a full SDK tomorrow, instead we'll get a new timeline and the possibility of a beta version of the SDK. If true this means that iPhone users won't see a bevy of new applications for awhile. This seems to be supported by the fact that Steve Jobs at Apple's investor's meeting this week talked about iPhone users having access to a wide variety of applications this summer. For those who have been waiting a long time for legitimate applications already this added delay is sure to cause additional frustration. About the best we can hope for, we think, is that perhaps Apple will make available a small number of demonstration applications for immediate download/purchase, but even this is likely a long shot.

Once the SDK is out and developers can start doing their magic it's possible there will be a lot of developers annoyed by the scope of the SDK. Apple has continuously talked about the importance of securing the iPhone and cellular network and this seems to indicate that the SDK will offer a limited sandbox in which applications can run with tightly controlled access to other phone functions. It's likely that you'll be able to do things like make a call, access your contacts, send an email or look up an address from a third party applications, but access to underlying system level functions is likely to be tightly controlled. For many applications this won't be a serious issue, but it does mean you probably won't see applications that address system level weaknesses in the iPhone like the lack of copy & paste or the ability to change the look and feel of the interface. Current rumors also seem to indicate that applications won't be able to interact with peripherals connected to the device either via the dock connector or wirelessly.

Another issue that is not being touched upon in most speculation and rumors is how applications will be able to interact with the network and your computer. We would hope, and expect, that applications will have unlimited access to both Wi-Fi and cellular data (EDGE) connectivity, allowing them to access the internet anywhere you have connectivity. The other issue, however, is how applications on your device will be able to interact with your computer. Some of the more powerful third party applications on other devices include conduits that allow you to synchronize content with your computer. This might be particularly important if you are developing something like a to-do application on the iPhone, where you would really need that information synchronized with your computer in some way. Another good example would be financial software where you would want to be able to synchronize transactions and account information between the iPhone and your computer. These sorts of applications would require Apple to include the ability to add synchronization options to iTunes, and we have to question whether they would allow that.

Last is the question of how applications will be made available to iPhone users. The consensus seems to be that Apple will use iTunes as the central marketplace for all applications. This makes sense and we expect it to be the case, but as always the devil's in the details. One big question is whether free applications will be allowed via iTunes. This is especially important for developers that might want to explore alternative funding mechanisms like ad-supported software or developers that might want to include an iPhone application in the price of a desktop program. Another question is how tightly Apple will control the type of applications that can be made available for the iPhone. Some speculate that many applications that might threaten the business models of Apple and/or their carrier partners won't be allowed. This includes things like VOIP, alternative media players or the ability to purchase music from other retailers like Amazon.com's Mp3 store directly on the device. If this turns out to be true it could seriously stifle innovation on the device.

Looking at existing models for application development on so-called "smart phones" you can see the pitfalls of having a marketplace that's too tightly controlled. For example with the Sidekick (read Sidekick LX Review) devices where all applications need to be blessed by the device maker there are very few applications that fill only a small range of the potential niches. On the other end of the spectrum is the model used by Microsoft for their Windows Mobile (read AT&T Tilt review) devices where there are almost no limitations on developers and subsequently there are thousands of third party applications, many of them free and many filling niches like system level tools that may not be allowed on the iPhone. In between are BlackBerry (read BlackBerry Pearl review) and Symbian (read Nokia N82 review) development environments.

Whatever we end up seeing tomorrow it's clear that a successful SDK and application environment is going to be key to the iPhone's future success. It seems that Apple recognizes this but it also seems that there are tendencies in the company that may create challenges. If Apple's tendency to want to control all aspects of their portable devices and the software on them is too strong both consumers and developers could be very disappointed by the announcement tomorrow. If we end up with a system similar to how games are currently developed and distributed on iPods it's unlikely that Apple's new SDK will do anything to blunt the currently thriving "unoffical" third-party hacking environment. If Apple instead moves towards a model much more similar to the development they allow for their Mac computers, however, we will see a rich eco-system of applications developed for their new generation of mobile devices. Until tomorrow we can only sit and hope for the latter.